DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 170547
SWODY2
SPC AC 170545

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME SERN VA THROUGH
THE ERN CAROLINAS INTO N CNTRL FL...

..SYNOPSIS...

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL HAVE EVOLVED BY MONDAY WITH A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. A SERIES OF VORTICITY
MAXIMA WILL ROTATE THROUGH THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EWD. AT
THE SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM AN OCCLUDED LOW IN
SE CANADA SEWD TROUGH ERN VA...THE ERN CAROLINAS...SERN GA AND INTO
THE FL PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD BY MID DAY AND CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

..ERN CAROLINAS...

A LINE OF CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG
WARM CONVEYOR BELT JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM PARTS OF ERN VA
INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS. LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE ADVECTED
INLAND THROUGH THE REMAINING WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES AND TIME OF DAY. STRONG DEEP
LAYER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH EWD ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS AND DEEP SHEAR
FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES WITHIN THE LINE. A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO BEFORE ACTIVITY MOVES OFFSHORE BY LATE
MORNING.

..EXTRME SERN GA THROUGH N CNTRL FL...

STORMS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS IN VICINITY OF TRAILING PORTIONS
OF THE FRONT FROM SERN GA INTO NRN FL EARLY MONDAY. INSTABILITY IN
THIS REGION WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN
STRONG SWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP SHEAR WITH AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT
FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LINE ACROSS PARTS OF
CNTRL FL AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS AND CONVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE
DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THIS REGION.

.DIAL.. 02/17/2008

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