SWODY2
SPC AC 180549
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CST SUN FEB 17 2008
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY AS IT
SHIFTS EWD. A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
THROUGH THIS FEATURE. FARTHER WEST...A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST
AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGE PRESENT OVER
THE NWRN U.S. AND SWRN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
HAVE ADVANCED INTO THE SERN U.S. WITH RESULTING OFFSHORE FLOW OVER
MUCH OF THE GULF. SELY RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN LATER IN THE PERIOD
OVER TX AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EWD. SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL
SURGE WILL ADVANCE SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY REGIONS.
..DEEP S FL AND THE FL KEYS...
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF OR JUST
NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS DEEP S FL OR THE KEYS. HOWEVER...
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
WEAK AND ANY LIGHTNING WILL BE VERY ISOLATED.
..SRN PLAINS AREA...
RETURN SELY FLOW WILL COMMENCE OVER TX AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EAST AND THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A WEAK IMPULSE THAT
WILL ADVANCE INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. QUALITY OF THE
MOISTURE RETURN AND RESULTING INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED. SOME
ELEVATED AND MOSTLY SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE WITHIN
DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION REGIME FROM PARTS OF TX INTO OK.
HOWEVER...ANY LIGHTNING WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE.
.DIAL.. 02/18/2008
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