DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 030829
SWODY3
SPC AC 030826

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CST SUN FEB 03 2008

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM LA/AR/SERN MO EWD TO THE
APPALACHIANS AND NWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...

..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE/POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS STEADILY EWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...AND
THEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TN/OH VALLEYS THROUGH 06/12Z. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER
WINDS...INCLUDING A SSWLY H8 JET IN EXCESS OF 70 KT AND H5 FLOW WELL
IN EXCESS OF 100 KT IN THE JET CORE AND AS HIGH AS 90 KT ATOP THE
WARM SECTOR.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW INITIALLY FORECAST INVOF ERN OK SHOULD MOVE
NEWD ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN NEWD INTO ERN CANADA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EWD
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS...CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES BY 06/12Z.

..LA/AR/SERN MO/OH VALLEY EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS...
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT -- INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES -- IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS A LARGE PART OF
THIS REGION.

STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THIS AREA AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...WHILE SLY FLOW ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
MAINTAINS A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /SURFACE DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60
AS FAR N AS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OH RIVER VALLEY/. WHILE STORMS ARE
FORECAST WITHIN BROAD ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION WELL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL IS FORECAST CLOSER TO THE
IMMEDIATE COLD FRONT AS IT ADVANCES EWD. WITH TIME...EXPECT A
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...AND THEN CONTINUE EWD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

WHILE STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT...LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING/INCREASING WITH HEIGHT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN LOW-LEVEL ROTATION -- BOTH WITHIN SMALL-SCALE BOWS ALONG
THE LARGER CONVECTIVE LINE AS WELL AS WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS AHEAD
OF THE MAIN LINE. THEREFORE...TORNADOES ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED --
WITH THE POTENTIAL SPREAD ACROSS A BROAD ZONE FROM THE GULF COAST
NWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND PERHAPS INTO THE OH VALLEY.

WHILE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT INTO THE UPPER OH
VALLEY AS FRONT APPROACHES AFTER DARK...GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH AND GULF COAST REGIONS MAY SUPPORT A PERSISTENT SEVERE
THREAT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

.GOSS.. 02/03/2008

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