SWODY3
SPC AC 100828
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2008
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TUE AFTN/TUE NIGHT ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA....
..SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE STRONG BELT OF WESTERLIES EMANATING FROM
THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE U.S. THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST WILL LIKELY BE
SUPPRESSED AS THE NEXT STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS INLAND OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES AND U.S. CASCADES. BUT...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DIGGING TO THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL U.S. ROCKIES...IN THE
WAKE OF ANOTHER IMPULSE LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...IS PROGGED
TO CONTRIBUTE TO A SHARPER/PROGRESSIVE AND INCREASINGLY NEUTRAL
TILTED BROADER SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL COME IN PHASE WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE SUBTROPICAL WAVE/JET STREAK EMANATING FROM THE MEXICAN
PLATEAU. THIS FEATURE...COUPLED WITH AN INTENSIFYING UPPER JET IN
THE CREST OF A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTRIBUTE TO FORCING
SUPPORTIVE OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
BUT...THIS NOW APPEARS MOST PROBABLE ALONG A FRONT OFF SOUTHERN
MID/ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...WHICH SEEMS LIKELY TO LIMIT THE
MAGNITUDE/EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
..GULF COAST/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING
UPPER SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOIST AXIS BY
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL DEEP MOIST INFLOW FORECAST
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST REGION.
ONLY VERY WEAK DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT
PROGRESSES ACROSS SOUTH/EASTERN TEXAS...AND EAST OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BUT...THIS COULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM OR TWO...BEFORE SHEAR PROFILES BEGIN TO
WEAKEN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SEEMS TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL...MAINLY TUESDAY EVENING....AS AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/CARIBBEAN ACCOMPANIES A SUBTROPICAL
IMPULSE PRECEDING THE MORE AMPLIFIED WAVE. DESTABILIZATION
ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING...COUPLED WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...IS EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WITHIN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH BROADER SCALE LIFT. ISOLATED
TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO A RISK FOR HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
.KERR.. 02/10/2008
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