SWODY3
SPC AC 150815
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CST FRI FEB 15 2008
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SERN
STATES...
..SYNOPSIS...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE SWRN
U.S. WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...THEN INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM WAVE.
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND
SERN STATES...REACHING THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND NRN FL TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
..SERN STATES...
RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE PINCHED OFF OVER THE SERN
U.S. AHEAD OF COLD FRONT DUE TO LEFTOVER WEDGE OF CP AIR THAT WILL
PERSIST FROM NRN GA THROUGH THE WRN CAROLINAS. NEVERTHELESS...A
STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NWD RETURN OF LOW TO
MID 60S DEWPOINTS THROUGH SRN AL AND SRN GA. SOME BOUNDARY LAYER
RECOVERY IS ALSO LIKELY OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EWD AND ADVECTS RICHER GULF STREAM MOISTURE
NWD. THE PRIMARY VORT MAX AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH
THE TN AND OH VALLEYS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE
A SECONDARY IMPULSE WILL MOVE INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A BRANCH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET EXTENDING
SWD INTO THE GULF COASTAL REGION. A LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION. THE NWD ADVECTION OF LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE LINE NEAR THE GULF COASTAL REGION.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN MARGINAL OWING TO POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY AS THEY
ADVANCE EWD WITH LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG DEEP SHEAR SUPPORTIVE
OF BOWS AND SUPERCELLS.
SEVERE THREAT FARTHER EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS IS MORE CONDITIONAL.
STORMS MAY UNDERGO TEMPORARY WEAKENING AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE WEDGE
OF MORE STABLE AIR THAT MAY PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF NRN GA INTO THE
WRN CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
RETURN...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO REINTENSIFY AS THEY
INTERCEPT THE MOIST AXIS OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS SUNDAY NIGHT.
.DIAL.. 02/15/2008
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