SWODY3
SPC AC 220636
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CST FRI FEB 22 2008
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL WITH RAPIDLY
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS IN ERN STREAM. FIRST IN SERIES
OF THESE TROUGHS -- NOW OVER SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...SHOULD BE WELL
OFFSHORE BY BEGINNING OF PERIOD...WITH ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL ZONE
SETTLING SWD OVER FL PENINSULA DAY-2. NEXT/UPSTREAM TROUGH ALOFT IS
EVIDENT ATTM IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE NRN CA. THIS
TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM TN VALLEY REGION AROUND 24/12Z...THEN OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC COAST AROUND 25/00Z. ASSOCIATED WAA AND FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING MAY AID THUNDER FORMATION OVER OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS...BUT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE TOO WEAK
TO SUPPORT SVR POTENTIAL OVER LAND.
..CA...
STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER NERN PACIFIC --
FROM PERTURBATION NOW LOCATED N OF HAWAII BETWEEN 30-40N. BY DAY-3
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING ASHORE PACIFIC
COAST...THOUGH OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SREF MEMBERS VARY CONSIDERABLY
ON GEOMETRY OF THIS FEATURE...AND ON IMPLIED OR EXPLICIT STRENGTH OF
ASSOCIATED MASS FIELDS. LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION -- ESPECIALLY
BEHIND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE -- MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME TSTM
POTENTIAL INVOF CA COAST OR INLAND CENTRAL VALLEY. THOUGH LOW LEVEL
SHEAR MAY BE FAVORABLE...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL VALLEY DURING
DAY...ATTM IT IS TOO SOON TO ASSIGN SVR POTENTIAL GIVEN LIKELIHOOD
OF ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND PRECIP...AND WEAK BUOYANCY.
.EDWARDS.. 02/22/2008
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