SWOD48
SPC AC 090956
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CST SAT FEB 09 2008
VALID 121200Z - 171200Z
..SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEXT TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY /FEB 12-13/...
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS AMONG MREF MEMBERS CONCERNING SHORT WAVE
DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN AN AMPLIFIED BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE U.S.
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AND...THIS GROWS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THE LATEST MREF
MEANS AND THE ECMWF LEND SUPPORT FOR GROWING SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS
PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
INCLUDING MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...BY NEXT TUESDAY. A RAPID
MOISTENING OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER...
AND INLAND ADVECTION...APPEARS PROBABLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE PRECEDING THE MAIN POLAR WAVE. AND...A
SUBSEQUENT STRENGTHENING OF FLOW FIELDS...AND DEEP LAYER/LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR PROFILES...IN CONJUNCTION WITH AT LEAST WEAK DESTABILIZATION
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER IMPULSE...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE SEVERE POTENTIAL. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE RISK FOR
TORNADOES...AT THE LIKELY ONSET OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS INLAND OF
COASTAL AREAS LATE NEXT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
.KERR.. 02/09/2008
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