SWOD48
SPC AC 101000
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2008
VALID 131200Z - 181200Z
..PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE THREAT AREA...
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE STRONG SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE...DIGGING INLAND OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES/U.S. CASCADES BY
12Z WEDNESDAY...WILL SPLIT OFF THE MAIN BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES...
AND DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW
DURING THE MID TO LATTER PART OF THE COMING WORK WEEK. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL THEN EMERGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU/
ROCKIES BY THE WEEKEND...AS THE NEXT IMPULSE ADVANCES INLAND AND
DIGS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...THERE APPEARS
TO BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WHICH WOULD PROBABLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS AT ODDS AS TO WHEN A COLD POLAR VORTEX WILL
FINALLY LIFT OUT OF MANITOBA/ONTARIO...PRIOR TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
DEVELOPMENTS. IF THE SLOWER MREF VERIFIES CLOSEST...A SOUTHWARD
SURGING ARCTIC AIR MASS COULD MITIGATE ANY SEVERE THREAT.
.KERR.. 02/10/2008
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