SWOD48
SPC AC 110953
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CST MON FEB 11 2008
VALID 141200Z - 191200Z
..PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE THREAT AREA...
THE SPREAD AMONG MODELS...AND AMONG MREF MEMBERS...IS LARGE
CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION/PROGRESSION OF THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
SPLITTING OFF THE MAIN BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES...INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS STATES BY MID WEEK. THERE MAY BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. BUT...THIS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON JUST
HOW FAST THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO RECOVERS
IN THE WAKE OF A PRECEDING COLD INTRUSION...AND WHETHER INLAND
ADVECTION OCCURS PRIOR TO A NEW COLD INTRUSION TO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. THE LATTER INTRUSION LIKELY WILL BE ARCTIC IN NATURE
..ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD VORTEX DIGGING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF HUDSON
BAY EARLY THIS WEEK...AND MAY BE QUICKER THAN ALL MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING.
THEREAFTER...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER VORTEX WILL BE FORCED
EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES...AS THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMANATES FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC.
BUT...THE SPREAD IS AGAIN LARGE CONCERNING THE MANNER IN WHICH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE ACCELERATES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
REGARDLESS...MODIFICATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN U.S. MAY BE TOO SLOW TO SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK. HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER MAY BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
.KERR.. 02/11/2008
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