SWOD48
SPC AC 151002
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0402 AM CST FRI FEB 15 2008
VALID 181200Z - 231200Z
..DISCUSSION...
LINGERING SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST ALONG EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT
FROM EXTREME ERN NC THROUGH CNTRL FL EARLY DAY 4. BEYOND THIS TIME
OFFSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH CP HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL DOMINATE THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. THROUGH DAY 5. ECMWF...GFS
AND MREF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL
PROGRESSIVE BY DAY 6 WITH A COMMENCEMENT OF MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH
TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS THE GULF MODIFIES AND SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EWD. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF DEPICT A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ADVANCING THROUGH THIS PROGRESSIVE REGIME INTO THE
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WITH AN IMPLIED SEVERE THREAT BY DAY 7 AND 8
OVER PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGIONS.
THOUGH DIFFERENCES IN LARGE SCALE PATTERN BETWEEN THE MODELS DO NOT
APPEAR VERY LARGE OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY...PREFER TO WAIT FOR
ANOTHER SET OF MODEL RUNS BEFORE INTRODUCING A RISK AREA GIVEN
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS HIGHLY TRANSITIONAL PATTERN.
.DIAL.. 02/15/2008
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