SWOD48
SPC AC 180848
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 AM CST MON FEB 18 2008
VALID 211200Z - 261200Z
..DISCUSSION...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST DAY 4 AND 5 WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
UNDERCUTTING BLOCKY UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE NRN U.S. AND CANADA
THEN ADVANCING EWD THROUGH THE SRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. MODELS
REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE SRN PLAINS DAY 4 THEN EJECT ENEWD THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS
DAY 5. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS IN WAKE OF A FRONT THAT
WILL ADVANCE TO NEAR THE GULF COAST REGION INTO ERN AND SWRN TX BY
THE START OF DAY 4.
PRIMARY CONCERN AND UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IS HOW FAR INLAND THE
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR CAN RETURN. SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE EWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT INITIALLY OVER PARTS OF ERN TX THEN
SHIFTING ENEWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE TN VALLEY BY
DAY 5. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE WARM SECTOR MIGHT RETURN AS FAR
NORTH AS SRN PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES. AS THE WARM SECTOR
RECOVERS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT INITIALLY OVER PARTS OF ERN TX DAY 4
THEN SPREADING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SERN U.S. LATER DAY 4
INTO DAY 5.
.DIAL.. 02/18/2008
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