SWOD48
SPC AC 282010
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 PM CST THU FEB 28 2008
VALID 021200Z - 071200Z
..DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT REGIONAL SVR OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY
DAY-5/3RD-4TH FROM MS DELTA REGION TO GA.
STRONG UPPER TROUGHING NOW OVER N-CENTRAL PACIFIC SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
WRN CONUS DAYS 3-4/1ST-3RD...THEN EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN CONUS DAYS
5-6/3RD-5TH. PROGS NOW AGREE ON SRN STREAM DOMINANCE OF MID-UPPER
TROUGH...AND RESULTANT SFC CYCLOGENESIS INVOF CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION AROUND DAY-5/3RD-4TH. DURING PAST 24 HOURS...OPERATIONAL
SPECTRAL AND ECMWF MODELS NEARLY HAVE SWAPPED 500 MB PROG TRENDS FOR
WHAT IS NOW DAY-5...WITH ECMWF SOMEWHAT FARTHER E IN CLOSING CYCLONE
ALOFT AND SPECTRAL MUCH SLOWER AND FARTHER W. MREF PACKAGES HAVE
TENDED WWD AS WELL...TOWARD OPERATIONAL SPECTRAL...WITH THEIR
CONSENSUS SOMEWHAT WWD OF ECMWF. WILL UTILIZE BLEND OF ECMWF AND
MREF MEAN...WHICH RESULTS IN THIS GENERAL SCENARIO --
1. ORGANIZED SVR MAY OCCUR DAY 4 OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN
TX...PERHAPS LIMITED ON N END BY PROBABLE ANAFRONTAL SFC REGIME AND
MORE UNCERTAIN QUALITY OF RETURN FLOW...
2. SVR POTENTIAL INCREASING AND SHIFTING EWD ACROSS GULF COAST
STATES LATE DAY-4 INTO EARLY DAY-6...SUPPORTED BY STRENGTHENING OF
BOTH RETURN FLOW AND WARM SECTOR SHEAR AS SFC LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES
INLAND. THREAT MAY EXTEND AS FAR S AS PORTIONS FL PENINSULA...AND
AS FAR E AS PORTIONS CAROLINAS LATE DAY-5 INTO DAY-6.
..RETRANSMITTED PER REQUEST...
.EDWARDS.. 02/28/2008
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