MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0130

ACUS11 KWNS 020614
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020614
MEZ000-021015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0130
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 AM CST SAT FEB 02 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF INTERIOR MAINE

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 020614Z - 021015Z

FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF INTERIOR MAINE
BETWEEN 06Z-10Z. FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS FROM 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A 1 TO 1.5 HR PERIOD.

06Z SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A 1004 MB SFC LOW NW OF BOS. AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED NEWD FROM THIS LOW INTO DOWNEAST MAINE.
STRONG SFC PRESSURE FALLS /2-3 MB PER HR/ EXTENDING NEWD INDICATE
THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SFC LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...JUST
INLAND OF THE MAINE COAST. STRONG WAA /EVIDENT BY STRONGLY VEERING
WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS/ COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL VERTICAL
MOTION...AHEAD OF MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SEEN ON WV IMAGERY...HAS
SUPPORTED A WELL DEFINED BAND OF MODERATE/HVY PRECIPITATION MOVING
NEWD AROUND 40 KTS OVER SRN/WRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS PRECIPITATION BAND
/40-60 MILES WIDE/ HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING RECENTLY /BASED ON
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC/. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FORCING SHOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST MODERATE PRECIPITATION RATES WITHIN THIS BAND AS IT
MOVES THROUGH MOST OF INTERIOR MAINE FROM 06Z TO 10Z. EAST OF THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW/INVERTED TROUGH...COASTAL COUNTIES OF
SRN/DOWNEAST MAINE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN OR CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TO THE WEST OF THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW...A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP ELEVATED WARM LAYER /5-6 KFT BASED ON
RUC/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS/ WILL SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN OVER MUCH OF
INTERIOR MAINE. HOWEVER...OVER FAR NRN MAINE THE SMALLER DEPTH OF
THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SLEET.

.CROSBIE/SMITH.. 02/02/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

..NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

47436913 46247022 45417058 44157030 45406745 47216782

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