SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031349
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-031615-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0133
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CST SUN FEB 03 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME SE TX...LA...SERN AR...WRN MS.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 031349Z - 031615Z
POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR HAIL FROM GROWING/DEEPENING AREA OF
CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NEWD ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA. ISOLATED/MRGL SVR HAIL IS POSSIBLE.
LCH RAOB...AND RUC SOUNDINGS MODIFIED DOWNSTREAM FOR VARIOUS
OBSERVED MEASURES OF MOISTURE AND REMOTELY SENSED PW...SUGGEST THAT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BECOMING SUFFICIENT INVOF 30-40 KT LLJ TO
BOOST MLCAPES ABOVE A STABLE LAYER BETWEEN 400-500 MB. THIS RESULTS
IN ELEVATED MUCAPES NOT ONLY INCREASING TO 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...BUT
EXTENDING UPWARD INTO FAVORABLE ICING LEVELS FOR MORE
ROBUST/SUSTAINED TSTMS. ANOTHER RESULT OF THIS PROCESS IS TO
STRENGTHEN NET SHEAR EXPERIENCED BY TSTMS...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES EXCEEDING 50 KT ATTM FROM SERN TX ACROSS PORTIONS
SWRN/CENTRAL LA. ALTHOUGH SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH NEWD
EXTENT...FAVORABLE KINEMATIC PROFILES FOR MIDLEVEL ROTATION AND HAIL
PRODUCTION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS MORE OF DISCUSSION AREA DURING NEXT
FEW HOURS. LACK OF COLDER THERMAL PROFILES AND LACK OF STEEPER
LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO PRECLUDE MORE SIGNIFICANT HAIL THREAT ATTM.
.EDWARDS.. 02/03/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...
30319399 31049365 32689256 33219227 33239087 32689046
30989159 30319243
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