SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050148
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-050315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0143
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CST MON FEB 04 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 050148Z - 050315Z
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. A WW IS
NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ALONG A WEAK
PRE-FRONTAL LOW/MID-LEVEL CONFLUENCE...NEAR THE INTERFACE OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF
MOIST GULF RETURN FLOW. THIS APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE NOW RAPIDLY LIFTING NORTHEAST
OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND. SOME INCREASE/INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS
APPEARS POSSIBLE BETWEEN NOW AND 04-05Z...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS REMAINING OFF TO THE EAST OF
THE REGION...THE TENDENCY FOR MID-LEVEL WARMING...AHEAD OF THE
VIGOROUS POLAR IMPULSE DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...MAY
ULTIMATELY SUPPRESS THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.
.KERR.. 02/05/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...
35549708 35889673 36669588 37039512 36699453 36149475
35369585 35119691
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