SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050610
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-050915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0147
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 AM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND
CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
VALID 050610Z - 050915Z
INCREASING PRECIPITATION RATES ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED BEFORE DAYBREAK ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
VERMONT/NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO WESTERN MAINE... WITH A GRADUAL
CHANGE OVER TO LIQUID PRECIPITATION IN AREAS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
A LOW AMPLITUDE POLAR WAVE...WHICH EMANATED FROM THE WESTERN U.S.
UPPER TROUGH...IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...STRONG DOWNSTREAM LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
ADVECTION...ON THE NOSE OF A 40-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET ...IS
PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO/THROUGH NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY 09-12Z. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL EVENTUALLY SATURATE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION
RATES...WHICH MODELS SUGGEST COULD AVERAGE .10-.20 INCHES OF LIQUID
WATER EQUIVALENT PER HOUR. LOCALLY HIGHER RATES ARE POSSIBLE IN
CONVECTIVE BURSTS AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.
A CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW/SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN/RAIN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE BY
AROUND 09Z...AS A DEEPENING WARM LAYER OVERRIDES A NEAR/SUB-FREEZING
SURFACE AIR MASS. BUT...SUB-FREEZING THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SEEM
LIKELY TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO WESTERN MAINE...WHERE STRENGTHENING LIFT IN THE
FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER...ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHTENING
MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF 1+ INCH PER
HOUR SNOW RATES BY 09-12Z.
.KERR.. 02/05/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
..NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BUF...
45327092 44817006 43996991 43067063 42587115 42437224
42777385 43707497 43967528 44637618
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