SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060207
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-060330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0169
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0807 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO...ERN AR...WRN TN...NRN/WRN MS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 36...37...
VALID 060207Z - 060330Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 36...37...CONTINUES.
PRIMARY SUPERCELL CLUSTER IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME NEAR/NORTHEAST OF
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET CORE WILL SHIFT EAST/NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS. BUT...SEVERE THREAT
WILL PERSIST FROM THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI
RIVERS...SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...UNTIL
PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL PASSES DURING THE 03-06Z. BY 06Z...THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO THE VICINITY OF THE RIVER...TO THE
SOUTH OF A SLOWLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MIGRATING INTO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS/INDIANA. PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MAY BE NEAR OR JUST EAST
OF EVANSVILLE IN...JACKSON TN...TUPELO AND JACKSON MS BY THIS TIME.
WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS MAY TEND TO WEAKEN SOME...LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WILL REMAIN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A RISK FOR
TORNADOES WITH CELLS WITHIN...AND JUST AHEAD OF /BEFORE MERGING
INTO/...LINE. HOWEVER...WITH A CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF
SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...WITH 500 MB SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 100
KT...INTO THE REAR OF LINE...DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY BECOME THE
PRIMARY THREAT...AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DRY MID TROPOSPHERIC
LEVELS AIDS DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT TO THE SURFACE.
.KERR.. 02/06/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
37668922 37668801 36338795 34608861 32479006 32449188
33379215 34509170 36779043
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