MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0193

ACUS11 KWNS 110643
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110643
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-111045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0193
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CST MON FEB 11 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL/NERN OK...FAR SERN KS...FAR SWRN MO...FAR
NWRN AR

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 110643Z - 111045Z

FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
THROUGH EARLY MORNING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSTMS TOWARDS
12Z. ALTHOUGH INITIAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...RATES SHOULD LOCALLY EXCEED 0.05 IN/HR IN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
NEAR DAYBREAK.

RECENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AN
EXPANSION OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF NRN OK/FAR
SRN KS. THIS APPEARS TO IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLJ
OVER THE SRN PLAINS /AS SAMPLED BY VICI AND LAMONT OK
PROFILERS/...WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO STRONG WAA. EVENING MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VEERING OF THE LLJ WILL FOCUS STRONGEST
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG THE SERN KS/NERN OK BORDER REGION INTO
THE OZARK PLATEAU BY 12Z. WITH LIGHT NELY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WEST OF A QUASI-STATIONARY TROUGH LOCATED FROM NEAR ADM TO
UMN...SURFACE WET-BULB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AOB FREEZING THROUGH
12Z. INITIAL SCT LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER N-CNTRL/NERN OK...LIKELY
BEING INITIATED NEAR 750 MB PER LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS...WILL HELP
SATURATE LOW-LEVELS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SATURATION
AND WARMING...THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN VERSUS SLEET. INCREASINGLY RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO COMBINE WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO SUPPORT WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY 12Z.

.GRAMS.. 02/11/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

..NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

37169352 36499331 35979352 35899411 35859493 35899544
36019615 36289692 36519765 36829786 37149774 37449704
37559620 37569506 37459428

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.