MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0201

ACUS11 KWNS 120452
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120451
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-120645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0201
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 PM CST MON FEB 11 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...N CNTRL AND NERN TX THROUGH SWRN AND
CNTRL AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 49...50...

VALID 120451Z - 120645Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
49...50...CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM S CNTRL AND SERN OK THROUGH WRN AND
CNTRL AR. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS N CNTRL TX NEXT FEW HOURS.

LATE THIS EVENING A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE TN AND LOWER
MS VALLEYS...TRANSITIONING TO A COLD FRONT OVER SERN OK INTO NWRN
TX. A SWLY 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET FROM NERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
IS SUPPORTING DESTABILIZATION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD ELEVATED STORMS
FROM S CNTRL OK NEWD THROUGH CNTRL AR. THE 00Z RAOB DATA FROM LITTLE
ROCK AND NORMAN SHOW COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ABOVE THE SHALLOW STABLE
LAYER. MOREOVER...EFFECTIVE BULKS SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF ELEVATED
SUPERCELLS WITH SOME OF THE STORMS. LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN THE
PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STORMS DEVELOPING IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SWD INTO NRN TX NEXT
FEW HOURS WITH AN ATTENDANT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE
ATMOSPHERE IN THIS REGION IS MORE UNSTABLE THAN FARTHER NE...SO ONCE
STORMS DEVELOP...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.DIAL.. 02/12/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

34849164 32879658 32469798 34239774 35619375 36029131

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