MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0221

ACUS11 KWNS 130511
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130510
NCZ000-SCZ000-130715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0221
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 PM CST TUE FEB 12 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN SC THROUGH ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 130510Z - 130715Z

NERN SC AND PARTS OF ERN NC ARE BEGIN MONITORED FOR INCREASING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. A WW IS POSSIBLE...BUT THE
ULTIMATE DECISION TO ISSUE WILL BE BASED ON MESOSCALE AND CONVECTIVE
TRENDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A BROAD AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION
EXTENDS FROM THE GULF STREAM AREA NWD INTO THE CNTRL AND ERN
CAROLINAS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY CONTAINS NO LIGHTNING ALTHOUGH SOME
LIGHTNING HAS RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED WITH ACTIVITY JUST OFF THE NC
COAST. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IS THE VERY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST MODEL DATA SHOW WARMING ALOFT AHEAD OF UPPER
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT
LEAST MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS
SPREADING INTO THE SC AND NC COASTAL AREAS...BUT MUCAPE WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG. THE BROAD AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
CELLULAR CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NWD INTO THE CAROLINA
COASTAL AREAS. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS...SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY BECOME CLOSE ENOUGH TO SURFACE BASED TO POSE A SEVERE
THREAT. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN LARGE LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES...CONDITIONAL UPON SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION.
THEREFORE...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS THIS
ACTIVITY LIFTS NWD.

.DIAL.. 02/13/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...

34167783 33517897 33217942 33457975 34817835 35417743
35657634 35227573

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