SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160438
LAZ000-TXZ000-160615-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0234
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1038 PM CST FRI FEB 15 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 160438Z - 160615Z
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT ONGOING IN SE TX MAY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT AS STORMS REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE HAIL WOULD
LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE ACTIVITY.
THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
SWWD FROM EAST TX TO NEAR SAN ANTONIO AND A MOIST AXIS EXISTS AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS. SEVERAL ROTATING
STORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE MOIST AXIS AND THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN SUSTAINED EWD INTO THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
SHORT-TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE NEWD INTO SE TX AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR DUE TO A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
CONTINUE A THREAT FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL. THE STORMS
MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED DUE TO A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION SHOWN BY
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE TORNADO THREAT
MARGINAL IN SPITE OF THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
.BROYLES.. 02/16/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...
29919457 29689559 29779630 30289654 30609621 30849486
30729364 30169355
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