SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160543
OKZ000-TXZ000-161045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0235
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CST FRI FEB 15 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST TX AND TX SOUTH PLAINS/TX PANHANDLE INTO
WESTERN OK
CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
VALID 160543Z - 161045Z
A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS...IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE/EXPAND NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHWEST TX AND THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/TX
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OK. SLEET/ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
INFRARED SATELLITE/VOLUMETRIC RADAR IMAGERY FEATURES INCREASING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/CAPROCK VICINITY AND
ADJACENT NORTH CENTRAL TX OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WELL NORTH OF A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING AIRMASS
ENCOMPASSES THE REGION PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK AND 00Z
OBSERVED RAOBS FROM AMARILLO/MIDLAND TX AND NORMAN OK. AS OF
05Z...THE SURFACE WET BULB 32F LINE WAS RUNNING ROUGHLY WEST-EAST
PARALLEL TO I-20 IN WEST TX...AND THEN NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL TX INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL OK. IN ACCORDANCE WITH
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME SHOULD LEAD TO A NORTHWARD
EXPANSION/INCREASING PRECIPITATION RATES OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHWEST TX/WESTERN OK...WITH A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COMMON.
SIMILAR TO THE VERTICAL WET BULB PROFILES FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
REGIONAL 00Z OBSERVED RAOBS...NAM/RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS LARGELY
FAVOR FREEZING RAIN UPON SATURATION ACROSS MUCH OF THIS
REGION...OWING TO A FULL MELTING LAYER /850-900 MB AND ABOVE/ ATOP
THE SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING AIRMASS THAT RESIDES ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHWEST TX/WESTERN OK. HOWEVER...WHILE THERMAL PROFILES WOULD TEND
TO FAVOR FREEZING RAIN...MODEST ELEVATED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH
200-500 J/KG MUCAPE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ICE PELLETS/SLEET AND EVEN
SMALL HAIL WITH THE MORE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH DAYBREAK.
.GUYER.. 02/16/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
..NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
36699886 36299706 34999725 34229893 33270022 33190174
34100277 34880286 35900146
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