SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180435
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-180600-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0264
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 PM CST SUN FEB 17 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN FL PANHANDLE TO NWRN FL AND
COASTAL BEND...SWRN THROUGH E-CENTRAL GA...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN SC.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 65...
VALID 180435Z - 180600Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 65 CONTINUES.
ALTHOUGH SOME SVR POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS...INCLUDING RISK FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO...OVERALL DECREASING TREND THAT ALREADY IS UNDERWAY
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER WW PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN HAS
EVOLVED TO ISOLATED/EPISODIC WIND DAMAGE AND BRIEF TORNADIC
SPIN-UPS...ACCOMPANYING MESOVORTICES IN BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS. THIS
THREAT MAY SHIFT E OF WW. AREAS OF ERN GA AND SC E OF PRESENT WW
WILL BE MONITORED FOR EPISODES OF REORGANIZATION.
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BANDS ATTM ARE EVIDENT FROM ALLENDALE COUNTY SC
NEWD ACROSS SSC AREA...ALONG NWRN EDGE OF WW IN CENTRAL/NERN
GA...AND VERY BROAD CONVECTIVE PLUME FROM OFFSHORE PFN NEWD ACROSS
SWRN/S-CENTRAL GA TO NEAR VDI. EACH OF THESE SHOULD REMAIN ALIGNED
NEARLY PARALLEL TO MEAN WIND VECTORS THROUGH CAPE-BEARING
LAYER...SUPPORTING CONTINUED OVERALL LINEAR MODES.
HOWEVER...EMBEDDED LEWP/BOW FEATURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AND MAY
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...IN ENVIRONMENT OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. MODIFIED RAOBS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS WILL REMAIN SFC-BASED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
FROM CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL GA SWWD OVER CENTRAL/SRN FL PANHANDLE INTO
GULF...A FUNCTION OF RELATIVELY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-MID 60S F SFC DEW POINTS. AS PRIMARY MID-UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS EJECT ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION AND AWAY FROM
THIS AREA...LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND PROFILES ARE BECOMING MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL...BUT SUFFICIENT SPEED SHEAR STILL SHOULD BE
MAINTAINED TO SUPPORT 150-300 J/KG 0-1 KM SRH ACROSS THIS REGION.
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL TREND STRONGER...BUT LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WEAKER...WITH NWD EXTENT ACROSS GA AND SC.
.EDWARDS.. 02/18/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...
30378612 31038532 32478454 33128364 33938273 32918308
32938234 33958129 33697959 31648186 31128232 29658342
29968377 30118401 30078437 29908432 29588500 29688521
29658534 29898543 30038555 30178574
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment