SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180704
NCZ000-SCZ000-180730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0265
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 AM CST MON FEB 18 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN SC AND ERN NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 180704Z - 180730Z
WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SHORTLY FOR PARTS OF NERN SC INTO ERN NC.
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED TSTMS INCREASING IN INTENSITY FROM 25 ENE
FAY TO 25 SW FLO DURING THE LAST HOUR /SINCE 06Z/. AN APPARENT MID
LEVEL IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS AS
INDICATED BY THE 00Z GFS MAY BE AIDING WITH THIS INCREASE IN STORM
ACTIVITY. COOLING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN
LIGHTNING STRIKES SIGNAL THE INCREASING UVVS ACROSS THIS REGION.
SSELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE RETURN /SURFACE
DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE LOWER 60S/. THIS COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 7 C/KM WILL SUPPORT INCREASING INSTABILITY FOR SURFACE
BASED STORMS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND ATTENDANT
SEVERE THREAT...WITH LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES.
.PETERS.. 02/18/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...
33017911 33587997 34268009 34917939 35457836 36077731
36247639 35957542 35167504 33927676 33177840
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