SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181243
GAZ000-FLZ000-181345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0270
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 AM CST MON FEB 18 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN GA AND NRN FL
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 67...
VALID 181243Z - 181345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 67 CONTINUES.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PART OF WW
67 THROUGH 14-15Z. NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED BY MID MORNING ACROSS PART
OF NRN FL AND SERN GA.
RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTION FROM 15 NW VDI AND SWD ALONG PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING EWD THROUGH FAR ERN FL PANHANDLE/NWRN FL AT
1225Z APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH ASCENT WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WHICH WAS LOCATED FROM SERN
AL TO WRN NC. THIS ASCENT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FL/SRN GA CONVECTIVE BAND AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS ACTIVITY EWD ACROSS NRN FL/SERN GA THROUGH MID
MORNING. DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...STRONG SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
/50 KT AT 0.5 KM AGL OBSERVED AT 12Z JACKSONVILLE SOUNDING/ AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THIS 12Z SOUNDING
ALSO INDICATED A WEAK LOW LEVEL CAP THAT COULD BE EASILY ERODED WITH
SOME SURFACE HEATING. THUS A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED IF TRENDS
INDICATE INCREASING INSTABILITY AND GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
BEYOND 15Z.
.PETERS.. 02/18/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...
29398374 31018367 31938262 31788191 31268118 30738136
29828224 28978314
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