MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0289

ACUS11 KWNS 220705
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220705
ALZ000-MSZ000-220800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0289
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 AM CST FRI FEB 22 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MS...CNTRL AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 220705Z - 220800Z

THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS CNTRL MS AND CNTRL AL WILL SPREAD SLOWLY
NWD WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY
EAST OF WW 71 OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OVER ERN LA WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN MS INTO FAR SRN AL.
A LOW TO MID-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED FROM SRN LA EXTENDING ABOUT 100
STATUTE MILES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND IS CREATING STRONG WARM
ADVECTION OVER THE TOP OVER THE COOLER AIR AT THE SFC. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO INCREASE NWD INTO CNTRL MS AND CNTRL
AL SUSTAINING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOWN
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A LARGE HAIL THREAT
WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED CELLS.

.BROYLES.. 02/22/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...

32508629 32358899 32409064 32779102 33299095 33479029
33608787 33598614 33338571 33018567

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