SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221041
ALZ000-MSZ000-221145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0290
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0441 AM CST FRI FEB 22 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS...SCNTRL AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 73...
VALID 221041Z - 221145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 73
CONTINUES.
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXPAND SLOWLY EWD BUT SHOULD
BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL AND VERY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE ACTIVITY.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER SW MS WITH A COLD FRONT
ADVANCING EWD ACROSS WRN MS AND SRN LA. A LINE OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING IN SCNTRL MS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION
ON THE NOSE OF A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. THE LINE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SUSTAINED EWD INTO SW AL WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUPPORTIVE OF A
HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEED 1.5 INCHES
ACROSS SRN MS AND SCNTRL AL WHICH SHOULD FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE
GREATER THREAT. CONCERNING CONVECTIVE TRENDS...AN OVERALL DECREASE
IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY MAY OCCUR BY 12Z TO 14Z AS LIFT DECREASES
AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MS/AL
MOVES ENEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION.
.BROYLES.. 02/22/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
32078695 31038913 31058987 31458993 32218869 32998708
32978644 32518638
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