SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221113
TXZ000-221245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0291
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0513 AM CST FRI FEB 22 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL AND SE TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 221113Z - 221245Z
A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS
AND POTENTIALLY COULD EXPAND EWD INTO SE TX BY 15Z. THE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL AND WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
ELEVATED STORMS ARE CURRENTLY EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE TX
HILL COUNTRY WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF A COLD FRONT ALONG THE TX
COAST. THE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BEING SUPPORTED BY INCREASING LIFT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WEST TX EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS CNTRL TX THIS MORNING
SHOW MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.0 C/KM WHICH COMBINED WITH
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT. SHORT-TERM
MODELS DEVELOP THE CONVECTION EWD INTO SE TX BY 15Z SUGGESTING THE
THREAT COULD EXPAND EWD TOWARD THE HOUSTON AREA THIS MORNING.
.BROYLES.. 02/22/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...
29359593 29119665 29009779 29139830 29619818 30279732
30289574 29769562
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