SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252239
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-260045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0299
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0439 PM CST MON FEB 25 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...SERN OK...SWRN AR...NWRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 252239Z - 260045Z
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY ABOUT 00Z...WITH WIND AND
HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.
22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN
OK SWWD ACROSS THE DALLAS/FT WORTH AREA...WITH DRYLINE NEARLY
COINCIDENT. A WARM FRONT REMAINED IN PLACE FROM FAR SERN OK INTO SRN
AR...WHILE COLD FRONT/DEEPER WIND SHIFT WAS SURGING SEWD ACROSS
CNTRL OK INTO NWRN TX. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATED CU FORMING AS A
RESULT OF THE INTENSE COOLING ALOFT OVER OK.
STRONG HEATING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAVE STEEPENED LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES W OF THE DRYLINE ALTHOUGH LITTLE MOISTURE WAS AVAILABLE IN
THIS AIR MASS. A FEW DEEPER CU WERE NOTED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY ALONG
THE DRYLINE JUST S OF THE METROPLEX WHERE NOSE OF STRONG SURFACE
HEATING LOCALLY ERODED CAPPING. THESE ATTEMPTS AT STORMS HAVE FAILED
AS STEERING WINDS HAVE MOVED THEM OFF THE BOUNDARY AND INTO A HIGHER
CIN ENVIRONMENT WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE COOLER. ALTHOUGH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WERE RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S OVER ERN
TX...THE QUALITY/DEPTH OF THE MOIST LAYER IS LIKELY BEING DECREASED
ACROSS THE OPEN WARM SECTOR AS 850 WINDS HAVE VEERED SUBSTANTIALLY.
THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FROM FAR NERN TX ACROSS
SERN OK AND INTO SWRN AR...WHERE LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED ACROSS THE
WARM FRONT...AND AS DEEPER COLD FRONT INTERSECTS THE AREA FROM THE
NW. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SUGGEST A LINEAR STORM MODE
IS MOST LIKELY WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY
GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.
WHILE CAPPING WILL INHIBIT WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT AWAY FROM THE
COLD FRONT...WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS. ANY ISOLATED CELL
THAT CAN DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT COULD POSE A TORNADO THEAT...ESPECIALLY WHERE DEWPOINTS
RISE INTO THE 60S F. THIS INCLUDES AREAS SUCH AS SRN AR AND NRN LA.
.JEWELL.. 02/25/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
34939093 32929144 32479244 32309469 32299585 32759629
33499618 34619553 35469493 35749443 35869353 35729212
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