MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0302

ACUS11 KWNS 260851
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260850
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-261015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0302
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 AM CST TUE FEB 26 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LA...SCNTRL MS...WCNTRL AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 76...

VALID 260850Z - 261015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 76
CONTINUES.

THE SEVERE THREAT IN WW 76 WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS SCNTRL MS INTO
WCNTRL AL OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE ACTIVITY. A WW MAY BECOME
NECESSARY EAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH IF THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
REMAIN ORGANIZED LATE TONIGHT.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS AT 08Z SHOWS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD
ACROSS MS INTO CNTRL LA. THE BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN WW 76
IS ONGOING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH ON THE WRN EDGE OF
A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NWD INTO
WCNTRL AL. FOR THIS REASON...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT
FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND AN ORGANIZED STORM THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. VEERED WINDS ALONG THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH ARE RESULTING IN MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS IN THE LOWEST 3
KM EVIDENT ON THE JACKSON MS WSR-88D VWP SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE THREAT EXISTS. IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES AT MID-LEVELS ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR STEEP ENOUGH FOR HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES.

.BROYLES.. 02/26/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

31349304 31789266 32159189 32539089 32719008 33308973
33308945 33478938 33498949 33708947 33778897 33828892
33828869 33708871 33678849 33748828 34068819 34038792
33898788 33898763 34028762 33988723 33828695 33848675
33728659 33558657 33498635 33328644 33038656 32708634
32398648 32158641 31928641 31948685 32058686 32028722
32258752 32138753 32108760 32028761 32008804 31798821
31718808 31718844 31418846 31438979 31339006 31359133
31189159 31029160 30989168 31129177 31259174 31289196
31319205 31469218 31429260 31479271

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