SWODY1
SPC AC 091630
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT SUN MAR 09 2008
VALID 091630Z - 101200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..WRN/CENTRAL TX TONIGHT...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER SRN AZ/NM WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EWD/ESEWD AS AN INITIAL SPEED MAX EJECTS EWD OVER W/NW TX
TODAY...AND AN UPSTREAM SPEED MAX DIGS ESEWD FROM SRN AZ INTO NRN
MEXICO. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A MODIFYING CP AIR MASS IS RETURNING
NWWD UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM THE WRN GULF. BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S WILL REACH THE WEAK SURFACE BAROCLINIC
ZONE/INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS W/NW TX BY THIS EVENING...WHILE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO S TX THROUGH TONIGHT.
GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES OBSERVED IN 12Z SOUNDINGS AT MAF/EPZ/DRT
..AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS W CENTRAL TX BY
00Z.
THE SOMEWHAT GREATER CONVECTIVE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE TONIGHT
AS LOW-LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASE INTO CENTRAL TX ON A 30
KT LLJ. CONTINUE DESTABILIZATION...DESPITE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER
ACROSS NW AND CENTRAL TX TONIGHT. MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1250
J/KG...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SUBSTANTIAL DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITHIN THE
LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
.THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 03/09/2008
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