SWODY1
SPC AC 231624
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2008
VALID 231630Z - 241200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS TODAY IN WAKE OF DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN
STATES.
..S FL...
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER SOUTH FL WHERE A VERY MOIST AND
MARGINALLY BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF SWD
MOVING COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS MODEST OVER SOUTH FL...WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD ONCE AGAIN LIMIT
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.
..LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY...
LOW-TOPPED MOIST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE LOWER OH
RIVER VALLEY TODAY AS SECONDARY IMPULSE/VORT MAX AND MID LEVEL COLD
TROUGH /H5 TEMPS AOB -34C/ DEVELOP SEWD. THERMAL STRATIFICATION MAY
BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THIS SHALLOW
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
..PAC NW...
VERY COLD MID LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER LOW OFF THE PAC
NW COAST WILL SPREAD EWD IN WAKE OF STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INLAND
TODAY. COMBINATION OF STRONG ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING
DEEP ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF NOSE OF 130+ KT UPPER JET WILL
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A FEW LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE COASTAL RANGE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT GIVEN STEEPENING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
.EVANS/SMITH.. 03/23/2008
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