SWODY1
SPC AC 281935
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2008
VALID 282000Z - 291200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL...SRN...AND ERN TX...
..PARTS OF CENTRAL AND S TX NEWD TOWARD THE SABINE RIVER...
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR REMAINS CAPPED ACROSS TX...DESPITE ONGOING
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SWRN PORTIONS OF THE THREAT AREA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AS UPPER
DISTURBANCE NOW INDICATED INVOF THE TX BIG BEND PER WV IMAGERY
ADVANCES EWD ENHANCING LARGE-SCALE UVV WHICH...ALONG WITH CONTINUED
HEATING...SHOULD WEAKEN CAPPING ACROSS THIS REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING SELY LOW-LEVEL JET THIS EVENING WILL ALSO
SUPPORT POTENTIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT -- PERHAPS INITIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ON THE MEXICAN SIDE OF THE RIVER.
WITH LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW INDICATED BENEATH SMALL 40-45 KT WLY
MID-LEVEL JET STREAK AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED BIG BEND
DISTURBANCE...SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS.
THUS...ANY STORMS WHICH CAN DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LOCALLY POSSIBLE WITH ANY
WARM-SECTOR STORMS.
..SERN VA AND VICINITY...
MARGINAL INSTABILITY /UP TO 500 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE/ HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW 80S. LATEST
SATELLITE DATA INDICATES SOME DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL CUMULUS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ACROSS SERN VA AND ADJACENT NERN NC...WHICH SUPPORTS MODEL
FORECASTS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MODEST
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE
POTENTIAL...MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY-GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW OF THE MORE VIGOROUS
CELLS.
..LA/MS/AL...
MODEST INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA...MS...AND AL S OF SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. SCATTERED SHOWERS -- AND NOW A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS -- CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION NEAR AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW...A
FEW STRONGER CELLS COULD EVOLVE GIVEN MARGINALLY-SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION. MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE CONVECTION DIMINISHES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
.GOSS.. 03/28/2008
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