DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 302001
SWODY1
SPC AC 301958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

VALID 302000Z - 311200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WRN OK...MUCH OF
KS...AND INTO PARTS OF SERN NEB...SRN IA...AND NRN AND WRN MO...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF E TX/WRN LA...

..PARTS OF WRN OK ACROSS MUCH OF KS AND INTO THE MID MO VALLEY...
QUESTIONS PERSIST ATTM WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT INVOF DRYLINE OVER WRN OK/WRN N TX AND WEAK LOW OVER
SWRN KS/NWRN OK. A FEW BOUNDARY-LAYER CU ARE EVIDENT ATTM NEAR AND
S OF CDS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN OK. HOWEVER...WITH
CAPPING STILL IN PLACE -- AND LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS WEAKLY-ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF WRN UPPER TROUGH -- PER LATEST WV IMAGERY -- IT APPEARS THAT
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST.

HOWEVER...ANY STORMS WHICH CAN INITIATE WILL OCCUR WITHIN A
THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS...AND THUS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING
WINDS REMAINS ALONG WITH THE TORNADO THREAT.

GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS APPEARS TO EXIST LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AS LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. STORMS WILL
LIKELY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS KS...AND THEN ENEWD WITH TIME
INTO PARTS OF SRN NEB/MO/SRN IA. WHILE MOST OF THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED...SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF NRN OK INTO S
CENTRAL AND SERN KS. ELSEWHERE...PRIMARY THREAT WILL LIKELY BE
HAIL.

..PARTS OF E TX AND WRN LA...
PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES...WITH REDEVELOPMENT
CONTINUING -- PARTICULARLY ON THE WRN PORTION OF THE AREA ACROSS E
TX. THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS IS BEING DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY WARM
ADVECTION. AS WEAK UPPER FEATURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD
TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY...EXPECT STORMS TO BEGIN DIMINISHING FROM
PEAK HEATING ONWARD. IN THE MEAN TIME...WITH AMPLE SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY /MIXED-LAYER
CAPE 500 TO 1500 J/KG/...POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL HAIL WILL CONTINUE
WITH STRONGER CELLS.

.GOSS.. 03/30/2008

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