SWODY1
SPC AC 290037
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2008
VALID 290100Z - 291200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCNTRL TX...
..SCNTRL TX...
EARLY EVENING WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS SHEARING UPPER VORT IS LOCATED
OVER THE BIG BEND REGION OF WEST TX. THIS FEATURE MAY YET ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCNTRL TX DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY AS LLJ BECOMES A BIT MORE ESTABLISHED
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. BASED ON 00Z SOUNDING FROM DRT IT APPEARS
MINIMAL FORCING WILL BE REQUIRED FOR ELEVATED PARCELS ROOTED NEAR
780MB TO FREELY CONVECT AS MUCAPE IS ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG.
EVEN SO CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED IN NATURE AS
LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS APPARENTLY NOT THAT SIGNIFICANT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SUFFICIENT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR FOR
WEAK STORM ROTATION THAT COULD ENHANCE HAIL THREAT WITH STRONGER
CORES.
..ELSEWHERE...
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER NRN AL WILL WEAKEN
RAPIDLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH A GREATER CONCENTRATION OF STORMS POSSIBLE
FARTHER NORTH INTO THE TN VALLEY WHERE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
ENHANCE LIFT FOR DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS
APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
SCATTERED...DEEPENING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NERN
AR INTO MIDDLE TN.
.DARROW.. 03/29/2008
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