SWODY1
SPC AC 312000
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
VALID 312000Z - 011200Z
..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS MO/AR OZARKS TO
WRN/NRN AR...ERN OK...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN TX...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM SRN LM TO
S-CENTRAL TX...
..SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PATTERN EVIDENT DOWNSTREAM FROM LARGE SCALE
TROUGH OVER WRN CONUS. THREE MOST PERTINENT SHORTWAVES FOR THIS
FCST ARE --
1. TROUGH NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SERN NM AND W
TX...WHICH IS FCST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN TX TOWARD
LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD.
2. PERTURBATION NOW OVER CENTRAL PLAINS...FCST TO EJECT ENEWD TOWARD
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND WEAKEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH REMAINDER
PERIOD...AHEAD OF
3. COMPACT BUT STG TROUGH NOW EVIDENT OVER WY...WHICH SHOULD MOVE
EWD ACROSS NEB TO IA BY 1/12Z.
ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE -- NOW ANALYZED OVER S-CENTRAL IA...IS FCST
TO CONTINUE DEEPENING AND MOVE NEWD TOWARD LM AS MIDLEVEL WAVES
APPROACH. TRAILING COLD FRONT -- ANALYZED FROM NWRN MO SWWD ACROSS
WRN OK -- SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS LOWER OH VALLEY AND MUCH OF
IL/INDIANA...SEWD ACROSS AR AND NE TX...AND SWD ACROSS
NWRN/N-CENTRAL TX...BY END OF PERIOD. DRYLINE -- INITIALLY DRAWN
FROM SW OK SWWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL TX -- WILL MOVE EWD FOR ANOTHER
COUPLE HOURS OVER N-CENTRAL TX...THEN SHOULD BECOME QUASISTATIONARY
FROM WRN PORTIONS N-CENTRAL TX SWWD ACROSS EDWARDS PLATEAU THROUGH
MUCH OF EVENING...PERHAPS RETREATING WWD OVER SRN EDWARDS
PLATEAU/RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. WARM FRONT OVER SERN IA AND
NWRN IL SHOULD LIFT NEWD ACROSS ERN IA...NRN IL...INDIANA AND LOWER
MI BY END OF PERIOD.
..MO TO SRN PLAINS...
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS -- INCLUDING GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING HAIL...SVR GUSTS AND TORNADOES --
WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS CATEGORICAL MDT RISK AREA THROUGH EVENING
HOURS. REF WW 146/147 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR
NEAR-TERM THREAT FROM IL-OK. REF WW 148 FOR NOWCAST SVR THREAT OVER
SRN OK AND NRN/CENTRAL TX.
SVR POTENTIAL MAY BUILD FURTHER SWD ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL TX
THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON AS STG HEATING...COMBINED WITH WEAKENING
CINH AND CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF DRYLINE...SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS
GREAT OVER S-CENTRAL TX AS FARTHER N...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE ACROSS THIS REGION BENEATH MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
SPEED MAX.
..MID MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGIONS...
SVR TSTMS ALSO MAY DEVELOP NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS NRN MO AND
SRN IA N OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND...E OF COLD FRONT AND S OF WARM
FRONT...IN ZONE OF SFC HEATING AND ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. BY
AROUND 06Z...BAND OF CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME ORGANIZED FROM INDIANA
AND IL SWWD ACROSS AR...SHIFTING EWD THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GREATER WITH SWD EXTENT...WHILE
DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE ALONG VIRTUALLY ITS
ENTIRE LENGTH. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING GUSTS...WITH ISOLATED
HAIL POSSIBLE...AND HAIL POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT GREATER ACROSS MID MS
VALLEY REGION THAN FARTHER NE. LINE SHOULD REACH OH...KY...TN AND
NRN MS BY 12Z...MAINTAINING AT LEAST MRGL WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL. SVR
PROBABILITIES DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT AND WITH TIME
OVERNIGHT...GIVEN NOCTURNAL NEAR-SFC COOLING...ALTHOUGH STG/ELEVATED
WAA REGIME WILL SUPPORT SOME WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS OH AND WRN
PORTIONS TN/KY.
.EDWARDS.. 03/31/2008
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