SWODY1
SPC AC 261620
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2008
VALID 261630Z - 271200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..OZARKS INTO OH RIVER VALLEY...
BROAD ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS
REGION AHEAD OF FAST MOVING TROUGH NOW MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST.
IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...SWLY LLJ EXTENDING ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AR
THIS MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND NEWD ACROSS THE OH RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...LOW CENTER OVER WRN OK
AT 16Z IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OR SHIFT SLOWLY EWD INTO
CENTRAL OK WHILE WARM FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY NWD ACROSS SRN MO AND THE
OH RIVER VALLEY.
STRENGTHENING ASCENT ALONG NOSE OF INCREASING LLJ WILL
ENHANCE/SPREAD ONGOING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OVER SRN MO
ENEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD. ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY LATER TODAY FROM THE MID MS/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY
ENEWD...DESPITE MEAGER FEED OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME LESS LIKELY AS ACTIVITY SPREADS UP THE OH RIVER VALLEY
AND CELLS BECOME MORE REMOVED FROM PLUME OF MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE
RETURN AND ELEVATED-MIXED LAYER PERSISTING OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
SRN PLAINS. HOWEVER ALONG SWRN FLANK OF THIS EXPANDING AREA OF
ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION...INCREASE IN HEATING/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD PROMOTE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASE INTO MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE OZARK
PLATEAU. TRAINING/BACK-BUILDING WILL BE FAVORED FROM SRN MO ACROSS
SRN IL/IND/WRN KY. MUCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG OVER THE OZARKS TO A FEW
HUNDREDS J/KG INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT CLOUD
LAYER SHEAR FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS...SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STORMS
CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
APPEARS...EML WILL REMAIN TOO STRONG FOR DEVELOPMENT VERY FAR INTO
THE WARM SECTOR AND HAVE PULLED THUNDERSTORM/LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES NWD ACCORDINGLY OUT OF MUCH OF ERN OK/WRN AR.
.EVANS/GRAMS.. 03/26/2008
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