SWODY1
SPC AC 121624
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2008
VALID 121630Z - 131200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..GREAT LAKES AREA TONIGHT...
A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS...WITH A
PRONOUNCED EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMUM OVER NEB...WILL PROGRESS EWD TO
THE NRN IL/INDIANA/LOWER MI AREA TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
QUITE LIMITED UPSTREAM FROM THIS AREA THIS MORNING...SO SUSTAINED
ASCENT WITH WAA AND DPVA WILL BE NEEDED TO SATURATE THE COLUMN ON
THE NRN FRINGE OF A MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME EMANATING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE NET RESULT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MOISTENING AND
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
ALONG THE PATH OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE.
..SE FL COAST THIS AFTERNOON...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS SAGGING SWD INTO CENTRAL FL IN ADVANCE OF
A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EWD OVER N/NE GULF OF MEXICO. WEAK WLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SUGGEST THAT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL/SRN
PART OF PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SE COAST WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
AIDED BY LOCAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...IN THE
PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY.
.THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 03/12/2008
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