SWODY1
SPC AC 261248
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2008
VALID 261300Z - 271200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LWR 48...WITH DOMINATE NRN
STREAM JET EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE NRN TIER FROM ELONGATED
GULF OF AK CLOSED LOW. POTENT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW NEARING 127W
WILL SWEEP E INTO ORE LATER TODAY...AND CONTINUE E INTO ERN ID BY
12Z THURSDAY. IN THE WEAKER SRN STREAM...A DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE
GRT BASIN SHOULD REACH THE CNTRL PLNS THIS EVENING AND WEAKEN AS IT
ENCOUNTERS SLIGHTLY CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE MID MS/LWR OH VLY EARLY
THURSDAY.
..SRN/CNTRL PLNS...
WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN LEE TROUGH/SWLY LLJ OVER THE SRN/CNTRL
PLNS TODAY...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO CONTINUE SPREADING NWD THROUGH THE
S CNTRL U.S. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MOIST AXIS
AS HEATING OCCURS THROUGH THE DAY. BUT EML ASSOCIATED WITH WLY FLOW
ALOFT LIKELY WILL KEEP REGION CAPPED TO DEEP CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN EXPECTED ABSENCE OF STRONG LOW- OR UPR-LEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ISOLD STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY EXIST
IN NE OK/SE KS...WHERE LIFT IN EXIT REGION OF LLJ WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
WHILE THE PROBABILITIES LOOK VERY LOW...SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR IF STORMS
DO FORM GIVEN MUCAPE AOA 1250 J/KG.
..OZARKS INTO LWR OH VLY...
THE LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN AND VEER THIS EVENING/EARLY THURSDAY FROM
THE OZARKS INTO THE LWR OH VLY AS AFOREMENTIONED SRN STREAM IMPULSE
APPROACHES REGION. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ALREADY IN PLACE WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ASCENT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALONG
IT FROM SE KS ENE INTO SRN IL/IND. COMBINATION OF INCREASING MASS
INFLOW/MOISTURE ATOP FRONT LIKELY WILL SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS EVENING ON NERN FRINGE OF EML FROM SRN/CNTRL MO INTO IL. THIS
ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL EXPAND FARTHER E INTO THE LWR OH VLY OVERNIGHT.
AT THE SAME TIME...UNIDIRECTIONAL CLOUD-LAYER FLOW AND STATIONARY
NATURE OF FORCING SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME REGENERATIVE/
BACK-BUILDING ACTIVITY IN MO/IL. WITH ELEVATED CAPE ON THE ORDER OF
750 J/KG AND 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -18 TO -20C...SETUP WILL SUPPORT
HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS. MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD...HOWEVER
..LIMIT OVERALL EXTENT OF SVR THREAT.
IN THE MEANTIME...PATCHES OF ELEVATED CONVECTION/ISOLD THUNDER
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER PARTS OF MO AND IL
TODAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES ON LEADING EDGE OF ADVANCING EML. WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY SVR HAIL THREAT ISOLATED.
.CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 03/26/2008
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