SWODY1
SPC AC 091948
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT SUN MAR 09 2008
VALID 092000Z - 101200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PART OF WEST AND CENTRAL
TX...
..WRN/CENTRAL TX...
MODIFIED CP AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO RETURN NWD FROM S INTO CENTRAL
TX THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S ALONG THE PORTION OF THE INVERTED TROUGH
THAT EXTENDED FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO NW TX...WITH A DRIER AIR MASS
NOTED FARTHER WSWWD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO SW TX. ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER WHICH EXTENDED EWD ATOP THE MOISTURE RETURN HAS THUS FAR
CAPPED THE AIR MASS ACROSS TX THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH FROM ABI TO MWL WHERE
CONVERGENCE IS GREATEST.
A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER ERN NM/W TX...WILL
SPREAD ENEWD AND SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE RED RIVER VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT...WHILE UPSTREAM IMPULSE/JET STREAK DIGS ESEWD TO NRN
MEXICO. ASCENT WITH LEAD IMPULSE INDICATED BY COOLING CLOUD TOPS
ACROSS W TX ATTM COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD EWD
ATOP RETURNING MOISTURE AND MAY PROVE ADEQUATE FOR ROBUST TSTM
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 22-00Z IN VICINITY OF INVERTED TROUGH IN NW TX.
RECENT INCREASE IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /UP TO 40 KT/ AS STRONGER
MID LEVEL WINDS SPREAD EWD WITH LEAD TROUGH WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS...WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
DESPITE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING...FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF SLY
LLJ...AS UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS ESEWD...WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE INFLUX/
WAA WITH TSTMS BECOMING MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME AND DEVELOPING TO
THE ESE TOWARD THE TX BIG BEND/HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL/NORTH
CENTRAL TX AFTER DARK. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES SHOULD REMAIN
SUFFICIENT FOR A HAIL THREAT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE HILL COUNTRY/
BIG BEND REGION AS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS SWD.
.PETERS.. 03/09/2008
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment