SWODY1
SPC AC 251915
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CDT TUE MAR 25 2008
VALID 252000Z - 261200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..PACIFIC NW...
A STRONG UPPER JET WILL ADVANCE INTO NRN CA AND SWRN OR. COLD AIR
ALOFT WITH -36C AT 500 MB ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE UPPER JET WILL
MAINTAIN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG COASTAL REGIONS OF THE PACIFIC NW. SCATTERED CONVECTION
PERSISTS WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT...AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED OFFSHORE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY NEAR COASTAL WA AND OR WHERE SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY
EXISTS.
..MID MS VALLEY REGION...
MODIFIED CP AIR IS RETURNING NWD BENEATH STEEPER LAPSE RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD ADVECTING EML. THIS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE EML WILL REMAIN TOO
WARM RELATIVE TO THE DEGREE MOISTURE RETURN...AND CONTRIBUTE TO A
CAP. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ON NOSE OF
SWLY LOW LEVEL JET IN VICINITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SRN MO
LATER TONIGHT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BECOME DEEP ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE LIGHTNING WHERE THE CAP MAY BE WEAKER NEAR ERN FRINGE OF EML
FROM SERN MO INTO WRN KY. MOST CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN SHALLOW
BELOW A 700 MB INVERSION...SO COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROBABLY BE LESS THAN 10%.
.DIAL.. 03/25/2008
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