SWODY1
SPC AC 031621
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 AM CST MON MAR 03 2008
VALID 031630Z - 041200Z
..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR
ERN LA...EXTREME SE AR...MUCH OF MS...AND WRN AL...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDS THE MDT RISK
AREA...FROM SE TX TO THE TN VALLEY...
..LOWER MS VALLEY AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...
A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER W TX IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EWD PER
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH THE LOWER MS
VALLEY BY TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE...A SURFACE LOW
IN E TX WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD TO NRN MS/TN BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL LIKEWISE SWEEP EWD ACROSS E
TX/WRN LA TODAY AND THE REMAINDER OF LA/MS/WRN AL BY 04/12Z.
THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING HAS BEEN TIED LARGELY TO THE STRONG
SURFACE COLD FRONT AS A RESULT OF RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND
ONLY MODEST WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO
REMAIN ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. BY MID
AFTERNOON...LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING FROM THE S /BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S/ AND DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS LA/MS WILL
BOOST MLCAPE VALUES TO THE 500-1250 J/KG RANGE...WITH ONLY WEAK
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINING. EXPECT SCATTERED PRE-FRONTAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY ROUGHLY 21Z FROM SRN LA INTO SW MS...AND
THIS CONVECTION WILL SPREAD NEWD THROUGH THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT.
THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR WILL COINCIDE WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS AND
VERTICAL SHEAR IN ADVANCE OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE. FORECAST
HODOGRAPHS SHOW LARGE LOOPING STRUCTURES IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK TO
MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE SRH OF
300-600 M2/S2 BY THIS EVENING IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS LA AND WRN
MS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG. OTHERWISE...SOME FORM OF
THE ONGOING FRONTAL CONVECTION AND/OR EVENING SUPERCELLS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...REACHING WRN/CENTRAL AL BY LATE
TONIGHT. EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND BOWING STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND A FEW TORNADOES.
.THOMPSON/SMITH.. 03/03/2008
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment