SWODY2
SPC AC 261716
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2008
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN TO REMAIN GENERALLY UNCHANGED ACROSS THE CONUS
THIS PERIOD...WITH AN EXTENSIVE/VERY LOW AMPLITUDE LONG-WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS. A SMALLER-SCALE TROUGH/VORT MAX IS FORECAST
TO MOVE OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
PLAINS...THOUGH THE OVERALL/LARGER-SCALE FLOW FIELD OVER THE U.S.
WILL REMAIN WEAKLY-CYCLONIC TO NEARLY ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW -- INDUCED BY PERSISTENT WLY FLOW ALOFT --
SHOULD LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS REGION...WHILE AN
ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE LINGERS FROM W-E FROM OK/KS EWD ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY REGION. WHILE A SWD PUSH ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE
FRONT MAY OCCUR ACROSS WRN OK/THE TX PANHANDLE LATE IN THE
PERIOD...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS SHIFTS EWD...FRONT SHOULD OTHERWISE REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
WITH LITTLE IMPETUS FOR AN APPRECIABLE SHIFT N OR S.
..NERN OK/SERN KS ACROSS OZARKS INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD N OF THE SURFACE FRONT FROM PARTS OF SRN MO EWD INTO THE OH
VALLEY...WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW-LEVEL JET.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE
DAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER INCREASE DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE WARM SECTOR S OF THE FRONT/E OF
AN OK DRYLINE SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED -- THUS PROHIBITING
DAYTIME/SURFACE-BASED STORMS. BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO
EXIST FROM N CENTRAL OK/SERN KS ENEWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...IN
A CORRIDOR NEAR AND JUST N OF THE FRONT. IN THIS REGION...AMPLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW A FEW STRONGER
STORMS TO PRODUCE HAIL NEAR -- OR JUST ABOVE -- SEVERE THRESHOLDS.
.GOSS.. 03/26/2008
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