SWODY2
SPC AC 141729
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2008
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN
VALLEY...SRN APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS...
..TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS...
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE SRN
STATES AS A 90 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET QUICKLY APPROACHES THE TN
VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A STRONG LOW CENTER IN THE OZARKS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL MOVE EWD INTO TN SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD
ACROSS MS AND AL DURING THE DAY. A WARM FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW
WILL ALSO LIFT NEWD ACROSS GA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA BY AFTERNOON.
SEVERAL STORM CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLY AN MCS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS SUGGESTED BY SEVERAL SHORT-TERM MODELS
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT. THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS TN AND NRN AL REACHING THE SRN APPALACHIAN
MTNS AROUND MIDDAY. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES SATURDAY...CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY TO EXPAND EWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NRN
GA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT AGAIN POSSIBLE BY
SATURDAY EVENING.
CONCERNING THE STORM ENVIRONMENT...MODEL FORECASTS GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHES. AS A RESULT...SHEAR SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE
WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED...LIFT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL JET MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. IN RESPONSE...SHEAR AND LIFT WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WITH
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS
ZONE FROM NEAR ATLANTA GA EWD TO NEAR MYRTLE BEACH SC SHOULD HAVE
THE GREATEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WITH THE MORE
INTENSE CELLS. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR
SHOW IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WITH SELY 10 KT FLOW AT THE
SFC AND ABOUT 45 KT SWLY FLOW AT 850 MB SUGGESTING A TORNADO THREAT
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD
EXIST WITH LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELLS THAT TRACK EWD ALONG THE WARM
FRONT. FURTHER NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NC...MODEL FORECASTS
SHOW ELEVATED CAPE MOSTLY ABOVE THE 700 MB LEVEL WITH STEEP ENOUGH
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH...INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY BE STRONGER SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN CNTRL GA...A CAPPING
INVERSION SHOULD KEEP STORM DEVELOPMENT AND THE SEVERE THREAT MORE
ISOLATED.
.BROYLES.. 03/14/2008
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