SWODY2
SPC AC 151724
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...FAR
SW OK...THE OK PANHANDLE...FAR SW KS AND FAR SE CO...
..SRN PLAINS AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
A HIGHLY MERIDIONAL UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE
DESERTS OF SRN CA AND WRN AZ LATE TONIGHT AS A PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL
JET ORGANIZES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE CENTER
OF A 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED IN WEST TX AND
EXPAND WITH TIME...RESULTING IN RAPID MOISTURE RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS WEST TX. SFC DEWPOINTS APPEAR LIKELY TO REACH THE MID 50S F
IN THE SRN AND ERN TX PANHANDLE AFTER 06Z MONDAY. AS LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT INCREASES DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW...CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE NM AND
SRN CO EXPANDING EAST AND SEWD INTO THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES IN THE
06Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME.
CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE
90 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTING NEWD OUT OF THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE EJECTING MID-LEVEL JET WILL ALSO SPREAD
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EWD ACROSS WEST TX. OF CONCERN IS A WARM
LAYER THAT SHOWS UP ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS JUST ABOVE 700 MB
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CAP AND
CONVECTION WILL BE PRIMARILY ELEVATED IN NATURE. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR
AND CHARACTER OF THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT EVIDENT ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. THE HAIL THREAT COULD ALSO DEVELOP
NWWD INTO SE CO...HOWEVER MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS AND
THIS MAKES THE THREAT IN SE CO MORE UNCERTAIN ATTM.
.BROYLES.. 03/15/2008
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