SWODY2
SPC AC 210526
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2008
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
CURRENT MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN -- CHARACTERIZED BY NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS CONUS AND NUMEROUS LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES -- IS FCST
TO AMPLIFY GRADUALLY THROUGH DAY-2. EXPECT HEIGHT FALLS E OF
ROCKIES TO RESULT IN BUILDING SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH...AND BROADLY
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM CENTRAL PLAINS TO CAROLINAS BY 23/12Z. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH -- INITIALLY EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER WRN
PORTIONS WA/ORE -- IS FCST TO MOVE SEWD FROM MT-KS DAY-2.
LEADING MID/UPPER PERTURBATION -- CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS
-- SHOULD MOVE EWD AND OFFSHORE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS PERIOD.
ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE -- NOW ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL KS -- SHOULD
MOVE EWD ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
TRAILING COLD FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE SWD ACROSS OK AND MUCH OF SRN
HIGH PLAINS...REACHING PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/SW TX BEFORE END OF
PERIOD. LATEST OPERATIONAL SPECTRAL/WRF AND MOST SREF MEMBERS AGREE
FAIRLY STRONGLY WITH TIMING/TRACK OF SFC LOW...MOVING OFFSHORE
DELMARVA REGION AROUND 23/00Z. MEANWHILE...ANTECEDENT FRONTAL ZONE
-- NOW OVER BAHAMAS...S FL AND SERN/S-CENTRAL GULF -- SHOULD BECOME
QUASISTATIONARY DAY-1 AND LINGER ACROSS SRN FL AND SERN GULF DAY-2.
..S FL...
ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT...WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER SERN GULF BY 22/12Z. RESULTING LOW MAY
MOVE ENEWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE AND ACROSS ERN FL DURING DAYLIGHT
HOURS. BACKED FLOW E OF THIS FEATURE AND INVOF FRONT MAY ENHANCE
LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BENEATH SRN RIM OF UPPER JET...PERHAPS STRONGLY
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL OR SUPERCELL POTENTIAL IN SOME
SMALL CORRIDOR. MOISTURE SHOULD BE FAVORABLE WITHIN AND S OF
FRONTAL ZONE...WITH SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S TO LOW 70S F.
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING STRENGTH/TIMING OF FRONTAL LOW
EVOLUTION...AND ITS ASSOCIATED IMPACT ON LOW LEVEL MASS FIELDS
ACROSS S FL...PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL SVR OUTLOOK ATTM.
..NW TO W-CENTRAL TX...
ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA SHOULD STRENGTHEN AFTER DARK...ATOP
RELATIVELY STABLE AND POST-FRONTAL SFC AIR MASS. THIS REGIME WILL
INCLUDE INCREASINGLY MOIST TRAJECTORIES THAT WILL HAVE BEEN
PARTIALLY MODIFIED OVER GULF. MRGL BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SHOULD
BE TRANSPORTED INTO REGION TO SUPPORT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS
WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY FROM APPROXIMATELY 23/06Z ONWARD. MOST
VIGOROUS CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL NEAR SVR LEVELS...HOWEVER RELATIVELY
MEAGER PROGGED MUCAPE VALUES -- GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG MOST AREAS --
SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE ORGANIZED THREAT.
.EDWARDS.. 03/21/2008
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment