SWOD48
SPC AC 202111
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0411 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2008
VALID 231200Z - 281200Z
..DISCUSSION...
LATEST ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THAT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL STATES AT THE BEGINNING OF DAY 4 /SUN/ WILL
AMPLIFY CONSIDERABLY WHILE DIGGING SEWD INTO THE SERN STATES BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. LARGER DIFFERENCES DO EXIST IN THE LOW LEVELS
WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST
OF THE CAROLINAS WHICH APPEARS MOST REASONABLE GIVEN THE UPPER
TROUGH LOCATION. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...SOME MARGINAL THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER WOULD EXIST ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT OVER THE SRN FL
PENINSULA.
BY DAY 6 /TUE/...CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE...UPPER-AIR PATTERN. THE GFS INDICATES
THE EWD PROGRESSION OF A TROUGH FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE NRN
PLAINS...WHEREAS THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A QUASI-ZONAL WNWLY FLOW REGIME
OVER MUCH OF THE NATION. THESE DIFFERENCE ARE ALSO OBSERVED IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS WHICH INDICATE CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD AMONGST SYSTEM MEMBERS. THESE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
MODEL SOLUTION.
RECENT PER REQUEST.
.MEAD.. 03/20/2008
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