SWOD48
SPC AC 210859
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2008
VALID 241200Z - 291200Z
..DISCUSSION...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...ERN CONUS SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH DESCRIBED IN
DAYS 2-3 OUTLOOK SHOULD REACH MAX AMPLITUDE DAY-4/24TH-25TH AS STG
SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC. ASSOCIATED SFC FROPA
AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER GULF STATES SHOULD PREVENT SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE RETURN INLAND UNTIL AT LEAST DAYS 6-8/26TH-28TH. DURING
THAT TIME FRAME...MOST PROGS INDICATE ONE OR TWO STG SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS CROSSING CENTRAL CONUS...BACKED BY STG UPPER JET EXTENDING
WELL UPSTREAM OVER NRN PACIFIC. CONSIDERABLE VARIATIONS EXIST ATTM
AMONGST ECMWF AND VARIOUS MREF MEMBERS THIS FAR OUT WITH BOTH TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE OF STRONGEST/UPSTREAM PERTURBATION...AND ITS INFLUENCE
ON SFC PATTERN. SVR EVENT APPEARS POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS
AND/OR LOWER-MID MS VALLEY DURING DAYS 6-7 TIME FRAME...BUT PROG
SOLUTIONS ARE TOO WIDELY DISTRIBUTED TO LEND ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR
OUTLOOK AREA ATTM.
.EDWARDS.. 03/21/2008
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