SWOD48
SPC AC 250846
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 AM CDT TUE MAR 25 2008
VALID 281200Z - 021200Z
..DISCUSSION...
PROGRESSIVE AND NEARLY ZONAL MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL DOMINATE
MUCH OF CONUS...PERTURBED PRIMARILY ACROSS NRN STATES BY SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS NOW OVER SRN GULF OF AK AND BERING SEA. LEAD TROUGH SHOULD
MOVE EWD FROM VICINITY UPPER MS VALLEY ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND DAYS 4-5/28TH-30TH. TIMING/TRACK UNCERTAINTIES IN VARIOUS
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE PROGS -- DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN
DAY-3 OUTLOOK -- ALSO AFFECT ASSOCIATED SFC RESPONSES DAY
4-5...PRIMARILY REGARDING TRAILING SEGMENT OF SFC FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS SRN PLAINS. STG LEE-SIDE PRESSURE FALLS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF
NEXT MAJOR SHORTWAVE -- PROGGED BY ECMWF...GFS AND SEVERAL MREF
MEMBERS OVER MT OR SRN AB DAY-5/29TH-30TH. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE
DOUBT EXISTS ON JUXTAPOSITION OF FAVORABLE RETURN FLOW MOISTURE
BEHIND PRIOR FROPA WITH OPTIMAL MID/UPPER WIND PROFILES...IN SUPPORT
OF ANY POTENTIAL SVR EVENT IN CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. AFTER
DAY-5...THERE IS TOO MUCH DIVERSITY IN SHORTWAVE PROGS AND THEIR LOW
LEVEL RESPONSES TO JUSTIFY CATEGORICAL SVR AREA.
.EDWARDS.. 03/25/2008
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