MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0385

ACUS11 KWNS 092045
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092044
TXZ000-092245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0385
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 PM CDT SUN MAR 09 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 092044Z - 092245Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NWRN TX
SOMEWHERE IN THE 21Z-00Z TIME FRAME GENERALLY IN AN AREA BETWEEN
ABILENE AND MINERAL WELLS. HAIL FROM 3/4 TO 1 INCH APPEARS TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...BUT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. SEVERE POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A
WW AT THIS TIME...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

THIS AFTERNOON A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SWRN TX NEWD
THROUGH NWRN TX FROM NEAR ABILENE TO NEAR GRAHAM AND INTO SERN OK.
MODIFIED CP AIR HAS BEEN RETURNING NWD ALONG LOW LEVEL JET AXIS WITH
MID TO UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM...MLCAPE WILL APPROACH 500 J/KG
OVER NWRN TX WHERE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE OVERSPREAD THE
RETURNING MOIST AXIS. BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS IS INCREASING WITHIN
ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET AND IN
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN ABILENE AND MINERAL WELLS.
HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE STILL APPEARS CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED
STORMS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OVER WRN TX WITHIN ZONE OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
ATTENDING AN EWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS ASCENT WILL
EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS AND ZONE OF LOW LEVEL
FORCING ALONG FRONT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE CAP WILL WEAKEN AND
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...THE
MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD SERVE AS A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.

.DIAL.. 03/09/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF...

32849785 31679960 32230070 32899989 33389845

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.